The Strength of the Indonesian Card Market's Reaction to the National Payment Gateway's Implementation

Abstract

This study aims to examine how the Indonesia’s card market reacted to National Payment Gateway (GPN) implementation. The GPN governs the interconnectivity, interoperability, and integration of the Indonesian payment network. Despite being included in the innovation management stage, the effectiveness of this GPN's implementation was not further evaluated due to its gradual implementation and the COVID-19 pandemic. We use data from the Indonesian card market and macroeconomic indicators from 2013 to 2021and employs a modified ARIMA model. This study is unable to prove empirically that GPN implementation has a significant impact on the growth of the card payment market. The past performance of the card payment market has a statistically significant influence on its future growth. The findings of this study will assist regulators and industry participants in implementing policies and strategies to increase the customer base and effectiveness of Indonesia's card payment business.

Keywords: ARIMAX, card payment; GPN; innovation management; time-series analysis