Developing a Predictive Model to Predict Cash Flow Using Time Series Analysis

Abstract

The main objective of this research is to provide accurate cash flow forecasts to support effective financial planning, risk management, and more informed decision making. This study aims to provide accurate predictions for future cash flows using annual data of PT Adaro Energy Tbk, PT Bukit Asam Tbk, and PT Bumi Resources Tbk from 2013 to 2022 based on the availability of existing data. The results showed that the ARIMA model was able to provide a fairly accurate cash flow forecast for the three companies. This prediction is expected to help companies optimize their performance, improve financial management, and create value for stakeholders. Therefore, the development of predictive models such as ARIMA becomes very important in supporting the financial stability and sustainability of company operations. Applying accurate cash flow forecasts helps companies overcome future business challenges and risks and increase overall company value. This research confirms that the use of ARIMA models in predicting cash flows not only improves the effectiveness of financial planning, but also plays a crucial role in sustainable and efficient business strategies. This provides valuable insights for company management in making better financial decisions and being responsive to market changes.